Where are the hurricanes? Why the Atlantic is strangely calm right now

Lina PortmanAugust 27, 2024

3 2 minutes read

Where are the hurricanes? Why the Atlantic is strangely calm right now

So far this year, including the three storms rotating Monday, there have been more storms in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, and that's a bit of a surprise, forecasters say.

The 2024 hurricane season is not going as planned – yet.

So far this year, including the three storms that are rotating Monday, there have been more storms in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, which is somewhat surprising, forecasters say. Plus, the Atlantic has been quiet for the past week as we approach what is traditionally the busiest time of the season.

“It’s quiet out there,” Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at the University of Colorado, told USA TODAY on Monday. “I certainly didn’t expect this when we put out our last seasonal forecast!”

“We have not had a named storm since Ernesto dissipated on August 20,” he said, “and the National Hurricane Center is not currently forecasting any additional storm formation for the next seven days.”

Klotzbach said that if we look at named storms (tropical storms, subtropical storms and hurricanes), the last time we went from August 21 to September 2 without any named storm activity in the Atlantic was 1997.

So what's going on?

“The Atlantic tropics are broken – for now,” said meteorologist Ryan Maue Sunday, adding that storms developing near Africa face at least one problem: “Ocean temperatures at this latitude are far too cold to support a rainstorm.”

Hurricanes need warm ocean water to develop, like cars need fuel to run, and while the ocean is very warm in many areas, that's not where storms are developing right now.

Klotzbach also said that while some large-scale weather patterns promote storm formation, others act to prevent their formation.

Pacific 9, Atlantic 5

According to the National Hurricane Center, five named storms have formed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2024. Among them, three hurricanes (Beryl, Debby and Ernesto). At the same time, nine named storms have formed in the eastern and central Pacific basins, including three hurricanes (Carlotta, Gilma and Hone).

This is not what experts were predicting: all pre-season forecasts predicted a very active season in the Atlantic, and some predicted a “hyperactive” season – up to 33 possible storms.

Meanwhile, NOAA's 2024 Eastern Pacific hurricane forecast says a “below-normal season is most likely” (60 percent chance). There's a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season, NOAA said in its preseason forecast released in May.

What are the forecasts? “It’s too early to give up on the season”

“I think it's too early to give up on the season,” Klotzbach said, adding that the latest models “are much more robust than they were a week ago at this time.”

This means that activity in the Atlantic could be about to intensify.

Pacific May Calm as Atlantic Warms: “With the three systems currently being forecast by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the basin appears to be calming down fairly quickly,” Klotzbach said. “There's very little signal in the long-range forecasts that anything else is forming.”

So far this year, including the three storms rotating Monday, there have been more storms in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, and that's a bit of a surprise, forecasters say.

So what's going on?

Pacific 9, Atlantic 5

What are the forecasts? “It’s too early to give up on the season”

Lina Portman

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