Philippines 'will be a target' in case of nuclear war between China and US, analysts warn

Manila's allowing the United States access to its military camps and the deployment of a new missile system in the country were aggravating factors, Beleno said.

His dire assessment underscores the precarious position the Philippines now finds itself in. While Washington's security guarantees have long served as a deterrent to potential aggressors, they have also placed the archipelago in the crosshairs of a superpower showdown with apocalyptic stakes.

Beleno urged Manila to “refrain from taking sides” in the looming conflict between the nuclear titans. “If there is a side we can choose, it will be the side of peace,” he said. “If you use nuclear weapons, they will not only hit your enemy, they will destroy us all.”

In the event of a nuclear confrontation, China is likely to unleash a series of tactical strikes against key military targets across the Philippines, such as installations, runways and shipyards, said Joshua Espeña, a resident fellow and vice president at the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank.

“The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could plant decoys on signals received by the alliance’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance services,” Espeña told This Week in Asia. “So it makes sense for Manila to strengthen its ISR, electronic warfare and air defense systems by providing them with sufficient ammunition.”

The challenge, he explained, would be to intercept these tactical nuclear weapons in mid-air, given the limited range of the US military’s Medium Range Combat (MRC) weapon system. Espeña urged the Philippine Armed Forces to bolster their own dedicated air defense systems with robust munitions stockpiles and advanced electronic warfare capabilities.

“We cannot rely solely on the MRC,” he said. “The Philippine military must also have its own air defense system, which has a large stockpile of munitions. In addition, electronic warfare capabilities are essential to neutralize its targeting capabilities, even if they have a range advantage.”

He suggested that the Philippine armed forces might be able to mount an asymmetric response, leveraging the country's special forces capabilities to identify and target key missile launch locations.

The U.S. Typhoon missile launcher was deployed to the Philippines in April for the annual Balikatan joint military exercises. The Typhoon is capable of firing SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles and Tomahawk land-attack missiles, with operational ranges of more than 240 km (150 miles) and 2,500 km, respectively.

The Typhoon remained in northern Luzon to allow Philippine troops to familiarize themselves with the system.

However, according to Chris Gardiner, CEO of the Institute for Regional Security in Canberra, Australia, the Philippines would likely not be a “primary target” in the event of a major conventional conflict between China and the United States.

He stressed that all key U.S. military sites would be potential and “priority targets with respect to the operation of critical systems or the installation of critical assets” in the event of war. Primary targets would include U.S. nuclear capabilities and command and control involving intercontinental ballistic missile sites, naval and air bases housing nuclear-capable submarines and bombers, and communications and intelligence sites.

“The Philippines is unlikely to be a priority target in this regard,” Gardiner told This Week in Asia. “Interestingly, in terms of sharing collective security responsibilities between countries, sites in Australia such as the Pine Gap facility and the proposed nuclear submarine base in Western Australia would be targeted.”

He stressed, however, that the deployment of the powerful U.S. Typhoon missile system in the Philippines would provide a critical deterrent against Chinese aggression in the country's territorial waters. And if deterrence fails, the Typhoon's advanced capabilities would be essential to helping the Philippines prevail in the event of a major conventional escalation, Gardiner said.

He said Manila faces two questions regarding its defense policies and capabilities. The first is how to effectively deter China from using its military power in conflicts with the Philippines — including determining the best strategies to manage potential gray-zone conflicts or conventional escalations if deterrence fails, and how partners like the United States, Japan and Australia can help.

The second challenge is to determine the extent to which the Philippines should reciprocate the support it receives from these partner countries.

“I think the Marcos administration is right to think, for example, that its EDCA with the United States is a prudent response to both of these problems,” Gardiner said.

She said 25 areas in the country were targeted in the plans she saw, including Batanes Island and Subic in Zambales, where new Brahmos missile systems have been deployed, and the Ilocos region, site of the annual Balikatan joint military exercises.

Senator Marcos expressed concern that Washington could not prevent such attacks and said China was targeting the Philippines because of its growing military ties with the United States.

The Philippines and the United States are bound by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, which requires them to provide mutual assistance in the event of external attack. Washington has repeatedly reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to the treaty.

Gardiner said it was important for Filipinos to understand that the major conflict scenarios currently being considered by the United States, Japan and Australia involve those nations joining Philippine military action to defend the country's sovereignty.

“If the conflict escalates into a major conventional confrontation, MRC systems would be very important, but they would also be targeted, as would any system or site critical to conventional victory,” he said.

China has reportedly developed its own assessment of potential conflict scenarios, and Gardiner said those plans could involve defeating the Philippines in any military conflict over current territorial claims.

“This involves a conflict of claims and interests between China and the Philippines and is not the result of growing ties with the United States. The growing US engagement alongside the Philippines in its defense actually complicates China's plans in this regard and acts as a deterrent,” he said.